The Transportation Research Board of the National Academies (TRB) hosted a webinar titled “U.S. Transportation System Scenarios to 2050 in a World Addressing Climate Change” on Sept. 10. During the online event, presenters Daniel Sperling of University of California, Davis, Gail Achterman of the Oregon Transportation Commission, and George Schoener of the I-95 Corridor Coalition spoke about ways to address climate change impacts into transportation system planning.
Sperling, director of the Institute of Transportation Studies at University of California, Davis, and author of Two Billion Cars: Driving Toward Sustainability, gave a presentation titled “Lessons from California’s Future Transportation Scenarios.” His presentation examined the question: What does it really mean to achieve an 80 percent reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050?
Calling an 80 percent reduction a “huge challenge,” Sperling said most people and organizations “haven’t got their head around it." (President Obama recently called for a reduction of this amount.)
Basing his presentation on the study “80in50: Scenarios for Deep Reductions in Greenhouse Gas Emissions from California Transportation," he suggested a “portfolio” approach—which uses travel demand management, reduces vehicle miles traveled and uses a variety of alternative fuel sources, including biofuel, electricity and hydrogen—would be most effective in achieving dramatic GHG reductions.
“We’re really talking about transformation: transforming the fuels, the vehicles, the whole transportation system and mobility as we know it,” he said.
But changes will have to come from all sectors—not just the transportation sector. And not all sectors and subsectors should be reduced equally—those that are cost-effective and gain early consumer acceptance should be reduced first, he said. As an example, he suggested that light-duty vehicles such as sedans, pickup trucks and sport utility vehicles tend to be more amenable to large GHG reductions than other vehicles.
Yet, he noted, there are many uncertainties that could affect the findings of the study (and the future of transportation planning): the cost of future energy sources, the effectiveness of carbon sequestration, and the viability of using hydrogen and electricity in the freight, marine and aviation sectors.
“Cars are good, cars have been central to the growth of our country, they are a boon to our lifestyle,” he said. “But we have overshot, we have driven too far.” The challenge, he said, is how to reign in vehicle use with an improved transportation system.
Achterman, chair of the Oregon Transportation Commission and director of the Institute for Natural Resources at Oregon State University, discussed the development of transportation policy plans. The question is, she said, on a federal, state and local level: How do we think about this future?
“How are these climate action plans and strategies going to change what we do?” she asked, noting that other variables such as deteriorating infrastructure, disinvestment in transportation infrastructure and the challenges of congestion will “radically” change what transportation planners do—even without a discussion on climate change.
In her experience, she said planning has too often been based on forecasting. “Forecasting really doesn’t work very well when you are in a situation with tremendous uncertainty,” Achterman said, noting that climate scientists agree there is tremendous uncertainty about the impact of climate change on a regional level.
“Recognize that it’s going to take a lot of different kinds of actions by a lot of different kinds of actors to continue to provide efficient, effective, sustainable transportation services for people and freight moving into the future,” she said.
Schoener, executive director of the I-95 Corridor Coalition, an alliance of transportation agencies, toll authorities and related organizations from Maine to Florida, gave a presentation titled “A 2040 Vision for the I-95 Corridor.” His presentation summarized the recently-developed transportation vision for the region—which is home to 37 percent of the nation's population—titled “A 2040 Vision for the I-95 Coalition Region: Supporting Economic Growth in a Carbon-Constrained Environment.”
He said the vision examines the implications of continuing to focus on short-term operational improvements versus a plan that re-examines the traditional modal mix and service options available for passenger and freight transportation in the corridor. Schoener explained how the vision relies on the use of congestion pricing, land use patterns, expanded multimodal transportation options and new policies to achieve reduced fuel emissions while promoting economic growth.
The webinar was co-sponsored by TRB and the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials.
